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Which parts of the market the models currently rate strongest and weakest.
3 groups · 20 names · close 2026-09-24
of 1,000 simulated paths close 8% or more below 767.59 at some point
A deep drawdown is a tail case in the current simulation. Ordinary conditions.
This is an underestimate. The simulation holds volatility fixed and assumes log-normal returns, and real crashes arrive with volatility exploding and fatter tails than that allows. Read it as a floor on the risk, never a ceiling.
breadth across the 20 tracked names — this is what feeds the forecast’s breadth input
click a group to see each ticker’s own score
The megacap tech names that drive most of the index’s weight.
| Ticker | Price | Chg | Score | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 335.92 | -0.33% | 8/9 |
These baskets overlap on purpose — NVDA sits in both MAG7 and SEMI — which is why they are kept apart from the sector view, where membership is disjoint so the averages can be compared against each other. Every ticker runs through the same nine-signal engine as the ticker page.
Each sector’s score is the share of the nine ticker signals voting bullish, averaged across its members. Sectors are disjoint — no symbol sits in two — so the averages can be compared against each other. Both sides are sorted on the five-session change, the widest window shown; the one-day number flips too often to rank anything.
The history is derived, not accumulated. The signals are a pure function of the price history, so the score as of five sessions ago is simply the score recomputed on the bars up to that day. That is why the page was complete from its first run rather than blank for a week, and why a missed day repairs itself on the next.
On the two flags. Both need a stretch and a turn, never just a stretch. Bottoming means average RSI fell to 40 or below in the last 10 sessions and the three-day change has turned positive; topping is the mirror at 60. Those thresholds are pulled in from the usual 30 and 70 because an average of five RSIs rarely reaches the extremes a single stock does. Plenty of these turns fail — the flag is a reason to look, not a reason to act.
Prices are end-of-day and delayed, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell anything.
! No usable history for 3 symbols: EA, AVB, EQR.
! No market cap returned for 3 symbols: EA, AVB, EQR. Any sector holding one falls back to equal weighting and is labelled.
| META | 777.59 | +4.50% | 8/9 |
|---|
| GOOGL | 342.36 | +1.34% | 7/9 |
|---|
| NVDA | 224.58 | -0.41% | 7/9 |
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| MSFT | 497.93 | -0.53% | 6/9 |
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| TSLA | 377.94 | -0.57% | 6/9 |
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| AMZN | 249.38 | +0.04% | 4/9 |
|---|
Semiconductors — the cyclical engine under the tech trade.