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SPY
3 groups · 20 names · close 2026-08-07 · computed Aug 07, 2026, 18:14 ET
of 1,000 simulated paths close 8% or more below 772.98 at some point
A deep drawdown is a tail case in the current simulation. Ordinary conditions.
This is an underestimate. The simulation holds volatility fixed and assumes log-normal returns, and real crashes arrive with volatility exploding and fatter tails than that allows. Read it as a floor on the risk, never a ceiling.
breadth across the 20 tracked names — this is what feeds the forecast’s breadth input
click a group to see each ticker’s own score
The megacap tech names that drive most of the index’s weight.
| Ticker | Price | Chg | Score | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | 499.99 | +0.03% | 7/9 | |
| AMZN | 274.48 | +0.82% | 6/9 |
Every ticker runs through the same nine-signal engine as /ticker. A group’s headline label comes from the underlying signal votes rather than the count of tickers, so a group of narrow 5/9 leans does not read as strongly as one of genuine 8/9 calls.
Why these numbers move slowly. Scores are computed once a day and everyone is served the same stored copy. Fanning twenty-odd symbols at a price API on every page view would be both slow and rate-limited — Polygon allows five stock requests a minute even on a paid options plan, so the batch runs against a source that tolerates it.
Breadth is a small universe. 20 large, correlated names is not the whole market. It says something about megacap and semiconductor participation, and very little about small caps or anything outside these lists.
! BLOB_READ_WRITE_TOKEN is not set, so stored data is written to an ephemeral filesystem and will be lost on the next deploy. Create a Blob store in the Vercel dashboard to make it durable.
| NVDA | 223.96 | +2.27% | 6/9 |
|---|
| GOOGL | 354.30 | -0.96% | 5/9 |
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| AAPL | 313.33 | +0.29% | 3/9 |
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| TSLA | 328.58 | +2.83% | 1/9 |
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| META | 592.10 | +0.37% | 0/9 |
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Semiconductors — the cyclical engine under the tech trade.
| Ticker | Price | Chg | Score | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVGO | 427.76 | +1.71% | 7/9 | |
| NVDA | 223.96 | +2.27% | 6/9 | |
| TSM | 420.04 | +0.44% | 6/9 | |
| AMAT | 539.14 | +2.21% | 5/9 | |
| INTC | 101.65 | +1.84% | 4/9 | |
| KLAC | 198.11 | +2.53% | 4/9 | |
| MU | 877.57 | -0.44% | 4/9 | |
| AMD | 483.36 | -1.21% | 3/9 | |
| LRCX | 311.35 | +1.82% | 3/9 | |
| QCOM | 167.86 | +4.66% | 2/9 |
The four major US index ETFs.
| Ticker | Price | Chg | Score | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IWM | 301.56 | +1.11% | 8/9 | |
| SPY | 773.26 | +0.61% | 8/9 | |
| DIA | 539.62 | +0.27% | 7/9 | |
| QQQ | 723.03 | +1.17% | 4/9 |